2 August 2016: What Donald Trump's Tax Returns Show

Donald Trump has failed to disclose his full income tax returns, the first major party candidate to do so since 1976.  He is not required to do so, but Americans expect it (New York Times, Editorial, 1 August 2016).  In response to his failure, we have the right to make reasonable assumptions about what these tax returns would show, and act accordingly.

First, Donald Trump likely pays a low effective tax rate, perhaps zero, and engages in various tax dodges.  According to the Washington Post, Trump did not pay any (or nearly any) income taxes at least five times in the past 40 years (Washington Post, Fact Checker, 1 August 2016).  When asked in an interview what effective tax rate he pays, Mr. Trump said, “It’s none of your business.” He added, “You’ll see it when I release, but I fight very hard to pay as little tax as possible.” (New York Times, First Draft, 13 May 2016).  This probably means he claims tax breaks that ordinary voters do not exercise, and that would reflect badly on him.

Second, Donald Trump is not as wealthy as he claims.  Many experts believe his net worth is much less than the $10 billion that he boasts (Politico, 31 May 2016).  Forbes believes he is worth $4.5 billion as of September 2015 (Forbes, 29 September 2015).  Fortune believes he is worth $3.9 billion as of 15 May 2016 (Fortune, 23 May 2016).  Why is this important?  One of his only qualifications for the White House is that he is a business success, but it appears he is part “con man”, and that he is not as wealthy as he boasts.  In addition, his wealth appears to be very important to his ego.  As Forbes reported: “I’m running for President,” says Trump. “I’m worth much more than you have me down [for]. I don’t look good, to be honest. I mean, I look better if I’m worth $10 billion than if I’m worth $4 billion.”
Donald Trump is not as charitable as he claims.  Trump regularly boasts that he is very charitable, but a recent story indicated that he gives much less than he claims (Washington Post, 28 June 2016).  It is likely that his tax returns would support this statement from the Post article:  "What has set Trump apart from other wealthy philanthropists is not how much he gives — it is how often he promises that he is going to give.”

Donald Trump has strong financial interests in Russia, and other countries hostile to the United States.  “Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets,” Trump’s son, Donald Jr., told a real estate conference in 2008, according to an account posted on the website of eTurboNews, a trade publication. “We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia.” (Washington Post, 17 June 2016).  Time Magazine recently wrote about “Donald Trump’s Many, Many, Many, Many Ties to Russia” (Time Magazine, 2 August 2016), stating “The truth, as several columnists and reporters have painstakingly shownsince the first hack of a Clinton-affiliated group took place in late May or early June, is that several of Trump’s businesses outside of Russia are entangled with Russian financiers inside Putin’s circle.” 

Now you know what you can reasonably assume the tax returns show, at least until Trump provides information to the contrary.