20 March 2016: What the future may hold

The United States is likely to face a major crisis which makes the Flint water crisis seem straightforward.  It may be so profound that we may question whether we are capable of finding solutions and returning to our pre-crisis lives.


The Flint water crisis affected a large number of people, but only a single unit of infrastructure and a small geographic area.  In Flint, the challenge is not whether we can find a solution, but whether we are capable of implementing it politically.  It could be analogized to a patient with new onset diabetes who goes into diabeticketoacidosis due to persistent hyperglycemia (high blood sugar).  The patient is seriously ill, but treatment is known and well understood, and the prognosis is good if rational care is given and followed.


The crisis I am concerned about is comparable to a patient with multiple severe chronic illnesses, all currently stable, but requiring careful monitoring.  A relatively insignificant event or condition may worsen one of these illnesses, which causes other conditions to deteriorate, until the patient becomes gravely ill with multisystem failure.  At this point, it may be unclear how to respond or if appropriate treatment is even possible.


Similar to this patient, many of our societal and economic values and systems are chronically ill.  Although they may appear stable on a short-term basis, an apparently trivial event can trigger an acute crisis, which under the right circumstances, can propagate through other chronically ill systems until massive failure ensues.


Unfortunately for us, these chronically ill values and systems are fundamental to American success, and have been under attack for decades, as discussed here.  They include:


(1) Political and economic power must be widely disbursed.
(2) Physical infrastructure, such as roads, sewers and public utilities, must be a high priority.
(3) Promotion of the General Welfare, as indicated by the Preamble to our Constitution, must be a high priority for our government and society.  This includes strong support of public K-12 schools, colleges and universities, public health and public safety, as well as economic support programs for the middle and lower classes.
(4) All elements of our society must recognize the importance of engaging in rational, thoughtful discussions about public policy to reach a consensus.


The specific nature of the crisis will be difficult to predict, but possible contributors include:


(a) Terrorist activities
(b) Climate related changes
(c) Degraded roads, sewers and water systems, utility failures and disruptions
(d) Social unrest related to our oligarchy type government, marked disparities in wealth, economic stagnation of the masses, disenfranchisement of large segments of society, police brutality and political inspired violence (as with the Trump campaign);
(e) Public health crises (including Legionnaire’s disease or other infectious diseases), escalating gun violence and inadequate funding for mental health
(f) Our increasingly polarized society, which makes it hard to solve problems, or even anticipate them.


It may not be possible to prevent a major crisis, but we should try.  But this means we have to strengthen the fundamentals by investing in infrastructure and programs to support the middle and lower classes and by encouraging broader participation in public policy decisions.  We also have to reverse the trend towards concentration of wealth and political power, which means higher taxes for businesses and the wealthy and more transparency in government.  This is a substantial challenge, but do we have any real alternatives?