30 May 2020: Today is the new normal - don’t expect a return to our past lives

Although none of us can predict the future, there are several reasons to believe that the limitations we are experiencing due to the COVID-19 pandemic may not change substantially for many years.
First, ending the pandemic requires strong national and international leadership. Objectively, this does not exist in the US and foreign leaders have a limited impact. True, many governors or public health officials are doing a great job, but their power is also limited; they cannot project a national presence that overrides poor leadership by others.
Second, President Trump’s severe attacks on scientists and public health experts make a quick resolution very difficult. Scientists and experts expect criticism on substantive issues but they were not trained to deal with attacks from the President of the United States. When the next difficult decision arises, we can expect them to “dodge” to avoid possible antagonism by the President or his supporters. In any crisis, it is difficult to determine and execute the most appropriate decisions. In the current climate, I suggest it will be impossible, which means we will go back and forth with less than optimal solutions; if we are lucky, we will find a decent approach after many attempts.
What if we will have a new President in mid January 2021? Even so, the trauma that these experts experienced will not automatically recede - their decision making skills will not revert to pre-Trump capabilities. It may take decades before we again get assertive and confident public health officials and scientific experts.
Third, there will be no definitive vaccine solution. Currently, there are over 100 candidate vaccines in various stages of development, see https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00073-5. Who will decide which one is most effective and should be used? How will manufacturing be organized? Who will get the vaccine first? We have already seen political considerations markedly distort relatively simple decisions about drug treatments, testing, physical (social) distancing and personal protective devices. What makes anyone think we will suddenly acquire effective leadership for truly difficult issues?
Today is the new normal. I suggest each of us think hard about what changes we can make to improve our lives from where we are right now, and not rely on magic solutions.