The end of the Trump era
3 January 2025
The Trump era in American politics began on 16 June 2015 when Donald J. Trump announced his candidacy for President. Trump has a remarkable ability to grab headlines and dominate the political news. He “loves to be at the center of attention, which is often at the center of the chaos and outrage he creates.” Nobody has been able to sideline him - at this point, we have to assume it cannot be done. This is important because:
The world has many important but difficult problems.
The United States, the leader of the Free World, has elected a President with little interest or ability to solve these problems (in my opinion). Trump has demonstrated that although he can easily damage longstanding institutions and programs, he cannot build anything of worth. Only rarely do his actions improve the lives of middle class Americans.
Yesterday, Trump gave his first press conference since the election. It was exactly what Trump’s public performances always are: attention-grabbing threats alongside lies and very little apparent understanding of actual issues. His mix of outrageous and threatening is central to his politics, though: it keeps him central to the media, even though, as Josh Marshall pointed out in Talking Points Memo on December 13, he often claims a right to do something he knows very little about and has no power to accomplish. The uncertainty he creates is key to his power, Marshall notes. It keeps everyone off balance and focused on him in anticipation of trouble to come. Heather Cox Richardson
How might the Trump era end? Although his term of office ends on 20 January 2029, his dominance may continue until he dies. Based on his gender and date of birth (14Jun1946), the Social Security Administration estimates he will live to age 88. Based on the Northwestern Mutual calculator, using a height of 5’ 11”, weight of 240 pounds and other information from the web, he will live to age 93.
The Trump era may end sooner if these events occur:
1. Resignation
This is possible because:
Trump is “tired and on the way out,” and he never really cared about policy anyway: he ran for president for the purpose of staying out of jail and “lording it over his foes.” Heather Cox Richardson
Trump might resign to settle pending criminal or civil claims against him. However, this currently seems unlikely as Trump has demonstrated that he is above the law and has suffered little for actions that have seriously harmed others for similar conduct. The self-impeaching Trump might resign to avoid punishment for committing acts that even he cannot spin, although I don’t know what they would be.
2. Premature death from health problems
Trump has refused to release medical records. His major health risk factors appear to be:
Heart disease, due to his obesity and apparent bad eating habits.
Cognitive decline, noted regularly in his speeches and social media posts.
Prostate cancer, due to his age. Although prostate cancer is the #2 cause of cancer death in men (after lung cancer), most men die with but not of prostate cancer. I am not aware that he has this diagnosis at this time.
As President, Trump will have access to the top medical experts in the world. He took advantage of this when hospitalized with COVID-19. I suspect (but don’t know) that this was based on pressure from his handlers. He now has handlers with a different view of healthcare who may allow him to pursue his own beliefs, which likely would be detrimental to his health.
3. Impeachment
Trump was impeached twice in his first term and likely will commit impeachable events this term. However, the Republicans in the House and Senate are likely to support him unless they feel that his continued Presidency is a threat to their reelection. Could he do something so outrageous that he loses their support? This seems possible but is difficult to predict.
At some point, Trump’s increasing meltdowns, in addition to his other actions, may push Republicans to support his removal. Who would want to work with the author of this and similar social media posts?
Will the failing New York Times apologize to its readers for getting years of “Trump” coverage so wrong. They write such phony “junk,” knowing full well how incorrect it is, only meaning to demean.” Magot Hagerman, a third rate writer and fourth rate intellect, writes story after story, always terrible, and yet I almost never speak to her. They do no fact checking, because facts don’t matter to them. I don’t believe I’ve had a legitimately good story in the NYT for years, AND YET I WON, IN RECORD FASHION, THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN DECADES. WHERE IS THE APOLOGY?
4. Assassination
This essay is NOT encouraging violent or illegal conduct, which is prohibited by 18 U.S. Code § 871. It includes knowingly and willfully mailing or otherwise making "any threat to take the life of, to kidnap, or to inflict great bodily harm upon the President of the United States". The law also includes presidential candidates, vice presidents and former presidents.
Trump has had 2 assassination attempts so it is reasonable to assume there will be more. Trump is more prone to these attempts than other Presidents because:
He is reckless regarding his security. For example, he allegedly dismissed the concerns of the Secret Service regarding the January 6 insurrection and the danger of his golfing. This is unlikely to change.
Trump repeatedly demonstrates that for him, loyalty is only one way - to him, but not to his followers. Thus, it would not be surprising if followers turned on him.
Those convicted for their January 6 crimes, even if pardoned, might still be so angry that they were “conned” by him that they would attack him.
Those with families being deported may take action against him. Similarly, those upset about failed campaign promises, including rising prices due to tariffs, may feel betrayed and act out against him.
Trump’s wife Melania may be upset about his aide, Natalie Harp, who she may perceive as a girlfriend. Trump’s family may feel betrayed by other actions. The Secret Service probably cannot protect Trump against his family pushing him down the stairs or doing something else when meeting with him privately.
5. Removal by the 25th Amendment
Section 4 of this amendment lists the criteria for removal, which requires action by the Vice President and a majority of Trump’s cabinet. However, Trump appointed these individuals based on loyalty, so no matter how deranged or dangerous Trump becomes, this option seems unlikely.
Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Although it is difficult to predict, one of these sceneries may bring a premature end to the Trump era.
Click here for an analysis by Chris Bowers.
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As long as the grifter in chief and his family (including his wife) can profit from his presidency he will not resign.