The great migration has started
3 July 2023
The great migration of Americans from red states to blue states has started. It is not apparent from national statistics and may take 3-5 years to be obvious, but it seems likely based on these trends.
In the first phase, these groups are moving:
OB/GYN physicians and related health care personnel. A medical “brain drain” is occurring and will intensify due to medical practice restrictions in red states related to abortion rights. It is affecting where resident physicians decide to train and practice after training. See also articles at Wired.com, Slate.com and WashingtonPost.com.
Families with transgender members, due to state restrictions on health care for transgender people. Currently, 1.6 million Americans identify as transgender (0.5% of Americans age 18+, 1.4% of Americans age 13+).
College students:
In a new tranche of research released Thursday from Gallup and the Lumina Foundation, almost three-quarters of college students told pollsters that laws governing reproductive health factored into their decision of whether to stay enrolled in their current campus or leave. While Democrats have the strongest interest in abortion rights, a clear 62% of Republicans also said they play a factor in picking a university. Among all college students, the support for states that have greater access to abortion is by an overwhelming 4-to-1 margin, including two-thirds of Republicans who said they prefer states with less restrictive abortion laws. It’s also a pronounced winner among women (86%) and men (74%) alike. Time.
See also Political polarization is sorting colleges into red and blue schools
In the next phase, I predict that these groups will also move from red to blue states:
Young women, because the closing of abortion clinics in red states leads to fewer medical services for all women. See also How red states are putting women and girls "in their place.”
ER docs, other physicians and health care personnel because of potential criminal liability regarding their routine care for women and girls who are or may become pregnant. See Red states may be dangerous for physicians, Red states and cancer care.
Businesses. Although there is currently no supporting data, it seems likely that as physicians, women and college students flee red states for blue states, businesses will follow.
These factors in red states do not seem to have motivated Americans to move, at least to date:
Climate change, which is worse in the Southern red states. In addition, these states often refuse to even acknowledge the issue and may punish climate-conscious businesses.
As noted previously, moving is an intensely emotional experience and is not undertaken lightly. However, our ancestors crossed oceans to pursue a better life or to flee oppressive conditions similar to those that now exist in the red states. Moving to another State is much simpler.
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