The inevitable decline of red (Republican) states
24 May 2023
Source: Ballotpedia
It appears that the governmental policies of red states, particularly red state trifectas (i.e. states with a Republican governor and majorities in both state legislative chambers) are condemning these states to decline over the coming years.
What policies will cause this decline?
Hostility to the reproductive rights of women by prosecuting physicians and who perform abortions or their patients;
LGBTQ bigotry, which is increasingly important because 7% of Americans and 20% of Generation Z (born 1997-2004) identify as LGBTQ;
Book banning in public K-12 schools and anti-diversity legislation in public colleges and universities;
Racial bigotry and voter suppression laws;
Weakening laws that prevent gun related violence;
Ignoring or opposing recommended public health policies regarding COVID-19 and other diseases, leading to excess deaths.
How will this decline become apparent?
Initially, changes will likely be “soft” and consist of survey results, anecdotal reports and recommendations. For example:
One In Four High School Seniors Rule Out Colleges Based On State Politics And Policies
Poll: Abortion restrictions affect college decisions in Northeast
OB-GYN residents and OB-GYN staff are leaving Texas
Trans family moving from Texas due to anti-trans treatment laws
Civil rights groups warn tourists about traveling to Florida
Other advisories are anticipated about travel or moving to red states for pregnant women or LGTBQ families.
In a few years, statistics will show a slowing of any prior population growth in red states, followed by a flattening of the population and eventually a population decline. This will coincide with increases in the populations of blue states.
Red states will also have:
Diminishing college and medical student enrollment;
Fewer medical residents and new physician practices and more physician retirements in OB-GYN, emergency medicine and family practice, the specialties focusing on maternal care, as well as rheumatology, which uses drugs affected by antiabortion laws.
More business announcements to halt expansion or move from these states, such as Eli Lilly and Disney.
What responses to these declines can we anticipate in red states?
Although some red or “purple” states (i.e. those with no majority party) may change their policies, many are expected to “double down” and create even stronger policies in the above areas.
There will be increasing political tension and hostility between red and blue states, particularly in the U.S. House and Senate and through competing advertising campaigns for tourism, businesses and individual migration.
Where people live, work and travel may increasingly become a political statement.
Our national unity will be challenged by the increasing divisiveness between red and blue states.
How should the public react to this decline?
As discussed previously, the options are to move to a blue state, become politically active and fight these changes, prepare to move or do nothing.
Most people will do nothing until a crisis becomes apparent based on their own situation or that affecting a friend, relative, colleague or someone else they can relate to.
End of essay
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