The major dangers from Trump #47
8 November 2024
I think it is helpful to identify the major dangers of the pending Presidency, Trump #47. Our goal should be to protest, stall or stop them for as long as possible. Remember that campaigning for the November 2026 election begins in early 2026 and Republican incumbents may hesitate to support policies that may oust them from office.
If you previously were politically inactive, now is the time to pick an issue and get involved. If you were involved, please continue your involvement, even if you need to take a break first.
This is my list of the most important dangers of Trump #47:
Massive deportations. Trump’s threat of massive deportations, followed by the legal procedures and the deportations themselves, will be a tremendous hardship for those involved, their families and friends. The impact will be magnified because:
We can anticipate increased threats and attacks on all immigrants and those who look like immigrants, regardless of their status.
Professionals will hesitate to immigrate to the United States for medical residency programs, degree programs or other jobs.
Businesses may hesitate to hire immigrants for fear of their future deportation.
These deportations may promote a recession / depression, along with the factors below, because they will exacerbate existing shortages of workers.
Many of these immigrants supported Trump which makes the situation much more complicated.
War. Based on Trump's cozy relationship with dictators, I expect Russia to be more aggressive towards Ukraine and other countries, China to be more aggressive towards Taiwan, and Iran and North Korea to increase their hostile actions. Ultimately, this will lead to an expansion of the existing war with Ukraine and likely new hostilities. Initially, I expect Trump will keep the U.S. out of the war. However, when he leaves office, due to illness, death, impeachment or military coup, the U.S. will be forced to intervene.
Recession / depression. A Trump recession is highly likely based on:
Massive deportations and loss of employees.
Increased hostilities worldwide that will disrupt supply chains at least as much as the COVID-19 pandemic.
Trump’s pledge to destroy the independence of the Federal Reserve.
Trump’s tariffs, which will initially cause marked inflation and will also invite tariffs by other countries, magnifying the impact.
The Financial Times points out that Trump’s proposals are similar to the protectionist Smoot Hawley Tariff Act passed by Congress in the 1930s that helped prolong the Great Depression. The Times calls Trump’s plans “a poison pill for the American people, the US economy and the world.” The Hill
Managing the economy is difficult even with top experts. However, Trump hires based on loyalty, not expertise, and his appointees will likely do a mediocre job on this challenging task.
The above changes may cause massive civil unrest, which will further disrupt the economy and promote a recession or depression.
Massive avoidable deaths, comparable to the COVID pandemic. I previously estimated that at least 200,000 of the total 1.2 million American COVID-19 deaths as of April 2024 were due to Trump’s lies and inaction about COVID-19 regarding masks and vaccines. If another major public health or other crisis arises that potentially makes Trump look bad or that he doesn’t want to deal with, we can anticipate similar negligent conduct that may cause massive avoidable deaths.
Aggravation of climate change related problems and deaths. We can anticipate Trump resuming his prior activities ignoring this issue which will make it much worse for future generations.
Fascism will become established in the United States. Over time, we can expect increasing threats, attacks and prosecution of those criticizing Trump. In addition, we will be unable to trust U.S. governmental or even State governmental data (particularly in Republican led states) because governmental officials will lie or refuse to collect the data, as occurred in Trump #45 and is occurring in anti-abortion states. Trump’s followers will continue to assert that things are going great even when the direct evidence is to the contrary, and many other Americans will be afraid to disagree.
Of course, Trump #47 and the Republicans will cause many other problems, but I think these are the worst. If I missed something, let me know.
If you like these essays, please subscribe or share them with others. These essays will always be free. Instead of giving me money, please repost these essays, strive to make our world a better place and try to make yourself a better person.
The index to my prior essays on civics is here.
I have another blog on Cancer and Medicine.
Follow me on LinkedIn, Threads and Instagram (npernickmich) and Tribel (@nat385440b).
Email me at Nat@PathologyOutlines.com.
I also publish Notes at https://substack.com/note. Subscribers will automatically see my notes.