What to expect if Trump becomes President
13 October 2024
What can we expect if Donald Trump becomes President? Based on his past, he will try to do what he says but this time is more likely to be successful than in 2016. We can expect:
Trump will end free and fair elections by declaring any election in which he or his followers lose to be fraudulent; Trump will declare his supporters to be the winners.
Trump will not tolerate criticism of him, his administration or his major supporters. Trump will instruct the Department of Justice to prosecute his political opponents and those he deems a threat to his power.
Freedom of the press will be limited to those expressing opinions he approves of and in a manner that he approves of.
Written or oral communications or artistic expression deemed critical of the President will be subject to prosecution.
It will be hazardous for people to communicate with each other about anything but the most mundane matters for fear of prosecution.
Ironically, Trump’s major supporters will be pressured to show even more loyalty to him - they will be punished if they don’t perform according to his expectations.
Trump and his followers will punish those that they dislike or who appear to be disloyal to them. These punishments include hate speech, threats, attacks, arrests and deportation. Trump has already targeted his political adversaries as well as Muslim-Americans, Arab-Americans, Haitian-Americans, Latinos, other immigrants, Black Americans and Jewish Americans. The federal government, federalized institutions, the Proud Boys and others will administer the punishments.
The Courts are unlikely to stop Trump from doing this, even if illegal today, because (a) the U.S. Supreme Court has declared the President immune for most of his actions; (b) even without holding federal office, we have seen that Trump is above the law - he has suffered no significant punishment for various misdeeds and crimes he has committed; (c) as President, the Courts and law enforcement will fear Trump’s punishments and defer even more to his policies and perceived wishes.
Trump will enact massive tax cuts for the wealthy, causing increasing federal deficits. To limit the federal debt, he will also enact large cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and other social programs.
Trump will repeal student loan forgiveness programs and attempt to undue student loan cancellations of the past.
The Federal government will reduce services such as disaster relief as Trump slashes these budgets and replaces trained civil servants with his lackeys. When disasters occur, States and local communities will be on their own to respond. There will also be degradation of environmental standards for water and air as well as workplace and consumer safety standards.
The United States will cease all efforts to control global warming.
Abortion will be prohibited in the United States and those seeking or performing abortions will be punished.
As a practical matter, abortions even to save the lives of women or girls will be relatively unobtainable as few physicians or other healthcare personnel will take the risk of performing them.
Over time, the use of hormonal birth control for any purpose, IUDs and in vitro fertilization will become illegal or increasingly difficult to obtain.
It will be a felony to travel to other countries to obtain an abortion or to assist anyone, in any way, with getting information about abortions.
Healthcare will be increasingly difficult to obtain, due to:
Inadequate numbers of healthcare personnel from the loss of immigrant employees, who comprise a large percentage of existing personnel.
Cuts by Trump and the Republicans to Medicare (67 million Americans) and Medicaid / CHIP (88 million Americans).
Abolishment of the Affordable Care Act (45 million enrollees), with no comparable replacement coverage available.
Weakening of the Centers for Disease Control, National Institutes of Health and FDA.
Trump will attempt to deport 10 million immigrants. This action, plus the anticipated attacks by his followers on immigrants (legal or not) and those who look like immigrants will disrupt the labor market even more than COVID did.
The Constitutional provisions granting citizenship to individuals born in the U.S. will be ignored and revoked for immigrant family members.
Trump will attempt to denaturalize other immigrants with U.S. citizenship.
Trump and the Republican Party will enact policies that limit the role of women in the workplace to “traditional jobs” (teachers, homemakers, etc.), held in the 1960’s and before. This will further damage the economy.
Trump will ban gay marriage and attempt to invalidate existing gay marriages. The Trump administration will punish those displaying or promoting any activity of the LGBTQ lifestyle.
Trump will interfere with the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to marked stock market declines.
As a result of the above actions, a major recession in the U.S. and worldwide is likely with marked increases in unemployment. Remember that the COVID-19 pandemic caused a recession due to the disruption to the world economy by many sick individuals. Enactment of just a few of the above factors will have a similar or worse impact. In addition:
Trump’s economic policies, including widespread tariffs, will likely lead to higher inflation and decreased business confidence, increasing the likelihood of a recession.
Business growth is based on stability. Trump’s history of causing daily chaos, by itself, will likely hamper economic growth.
The world economy may be at a tipping point, with America’s stability largely holding it together. The chaos of a Trump Presidency would be enough to cause marked disruption in many ways, causing it to veer into a recession or depression.
I also speculate that many of the policies below will lead to massive civil unrest with strict curfews and possibly martial law. This will also cause severe disruptions to the economy.
Based on Trump’s love of dictators, disdain for NATO, and fascist beliefs. we can expect Russia, China, North Korea and Iran (possibly joined by Hungary, Turkey and India) to attack our Western allies without objection from Trump.
Russia will continue its invasion of Ukraine and will attack the Baltic and possibly other countries.
China will attack Taiwan.
Iran and North Korea will be more aggressive militarily.
Trump may refuse U.S. support of our current allies. However, if the war becomes severe enough, Trump will be removed from office in some manner, leading to U.S. involvement and a military draft, as well as a national crisis.
When Republicans win at the Federal, State or local levels, this is what we can expect to happen. Please don’t act surprised or complain about it.
If this bothers you, and it should, I encourage you to support Kamala Harris and the Democrats in some way, or more than you have in the past, to prevent these horrors from happening.
Write a check or volunteer to work on a political campaign or organization.
Attend a meeting, join an interest group (see below) or attend a webinar to learn more about what you can do.
Vow to do something, however small, to promote pro-democracy candidates.
Send an email to a public official or the editor of a publication.
My related essays:
Donate to preserve democracy, 10 October 2024
Make sure the young adults in your life have a voting plan, 3 September 2024
Do something positive - don't just stew over the news, 12 July 2024
Volunteer opportunities, 10 July 2024
Join an interest group:
Arab-Americans for Harris-Walz
If you like these essays, please subscribe or share them with others. These essays will always be free. Instead of giving me money, please repost these essays, strive to make our world a better place and try to make yourself a better person.
The index to this blog is here.
I have another blog on Cancer and Medicine.
Follow me on LinkedIn, Threads and Instagram (npernickmich) and Tribel (@nat385440b).
Email me at Nat@PathologyOutlines.com.
I also publish Notes at https://substack.com/note. Subscribers will automatically see my notes.