Stop obsessing about polls and get to work!
9 July 2024
We now have 120 days of freedom until the November 5, 2024 election. If Trump wins, we will lose our democracy and many rights we now take for granted.
As a business owner for 45+ years, pathologist and lawyer, I strongly believe that President Biden has been and will continue to be a great President. In a rational world, he should be America’s overwhelming choice against Donald J. Trump, the convicted felon, sex offender, pathologic liar, business fraud and dictator wanna-be. Yes - President Biden is behind in the polls (FiveThirtyEight.com: Biden has a 49% chance of winning; The Economist: Biden has a 25% chance of winning ), but nobody has any good evidence that another Democratic candidate entering the race now would do better. In fact, Allan Lichtman, an American professor of history who rose to international prominence in 2016 when he correctly predicted Trump’s election, says it would not be wise for President Biden to drop out of this year's election race:
“All of those pundits and journalists and political operatives who say Biden should drop out have absolutely no track record in predicting elections,” he said during his Lichtman Live YouTube show, which has reached 22,000 subscribers due to a surge in election interest and curiosity about Professor Lichtman's prediction system.
“Yet they claim to know what the Democrats should be doing to win this election, and once again, they’re trapped into looking at the polls. And all those same experts tracking the polls told us Hillary Clinton couldn’t lose.”
While he hasn’t made his final election prediction yet, under Professor Lichtman’s 13 keys system, Mr. Biden currently holds the advantage, with the incumbency key fully secured, among other keys such as a strong long-term economy, strong short-term economy and lack of major scandal.
However, if Mr. Biden decides not to run, Democrats would lose the incumbency key, and potentially lose the contest key if Mr. Biden’s decision prompts a chaotic Democratic convention later in August. Source (minor grammar changes made)
So I suggest we stop obsessing about the polls and instead work as hard as possible to elect President Biden and Democrats at all levels of government to strengthen our democracy.
I agree with Dr. Mary Trump, niece of the ex-President:
I’m proud to stand with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Perhaps more importantly, I’m proud to stand with people who love and are willing to defend democracy. Whether they’re in France or the United Kingdom or America, they are not willingly giving up their freedom. President Biden and Vice President Harris are our champions for freedom, and it's imperative that we unify behind them and make sure they get re-elected.
That’s how we’ll shock the pundits and Donald’s sycophants and enablers. After what we just saw in Europe, I’m more motivated for this fight than ever, and more certain that we can and will win.
In England and France, voters from different parts of the political spectrum put aside their small disagreements in order to focus on the big picture—the fight between freedom and fascism. By rallying around the cause of democracy — and the fear of what the extreme right would do if they gained power — they have shown us the way.
* * *
My uncle wants to silence our voices. He wants to decide who has a say and what direction this country goes in. He wants to take away our right to vote and have our votes counted just as Putin has done in Russia. Donald is so close to an imperial presidency he can taste it. Only we can stop him.
Democracy’s great comeback started in Europe. Let’s keep the momentum going here by standing behind team Biden/Harris and doing everything to re-elect the only pro-democracy ticket on the ballot.
Besides, it’ll be fun to prove the pundits wrong while watching Donald slip into irrelevance.
We can do this—it’s up to us. (emphasis added)
My related essays:
What you can do to save democracy, according to Jocelyn Benson, Michigan's Secretary of State, 27 February 2024
2024 resolution: Save democracy, 31 December 2023
Effective government requires our participation, 12 October 2023
Thoughts from Jennifer Rubin about what you should be doing, 22 September 2023
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